Quarantine could be safely cut from 14 to five days to kickstart travel after the national lockdown and in time for Christmas ski holidays, according to the most comprehensive study yet of Covid tests on passengers. The research, based on analysis of data from more than 105,000 passengers, found that tests on the fifth day of quarantine detected between 83 per cent and 90 per cent of Covid cases. The analysis of test results from passengers arriving in Canada, Iceland, France and Jersey showed tests on the fifth day were just as effective at detecting Covid as those on the seventh day, where the rate was between 84 per cent and 90 per cent. The research comes as Transport Secretary Grant Shapps and Health Secretary Matt Hancock are due this week to present the findings of their joint taskforce on “test to release” from quarantine to Boris Johnson. Mr Shapps has previously signalled his support for a test at seven days, cutting quarantine for arrivals to the UK in half but his taskforce has been consulting on a five day option, which is favoured by industry. The report, by Oxera and Edge Health, economics and health consultants that have advised the Government and the NHS said: “Real world evidence supports a significant reduction in current UK 14-day quarantine.” George Batchelor, director of Edge Health, said the data showed that “there is little to be gained by introducing a seven-day period over a five-day one.” The research from Iceland, based on 29,000 arrivals, showed that air passenger testing after five days was between 83 per cent and 90 per cent effective. Testing after seven days in Toronto and Paris – based on a combined total of more than 20,000 arrivals – was between 84 per cent and 90 per cent effective. Single tests on arrival in Canada (Toronto-Pearson airport), France (Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport), Jersey and Iceland detected between 54 per cent and 76 per cent of infected travellers. This is at least seven times higher than the success rate of seven per cent that Public Health England (PHE) claimed from its modelling. “These findings offer further evidence that the UK Government is significantly underestimating the effectiveness of air passenger testing schemes,” said the report, which was commissioned by Virgin Atlantic, IAG, TUI, Heathrow, MAG, Collinson, Airlines UK and IATA. Iceland’s testing scheme identified 69 per cent of infected travellers in a test on arrival, followed by 21 per cent after the second test on the fifth day, giving the total of 90 per cent. “The UK Government which is considering a ‘test and release’ scheme on five, seven or eight days, could opt for the shorter period while boosting safe travel to and from the UK,” said the researchers, who have submitted their evidence to the taskforce. It is understood Mr Shapps wants to have the testing regime in place for December 2, the date when the orders for the national lockdown beginning this week are due to lapse. The future travel bans will hinge on the impact of the lockdown on domestic Covid rates and Number Ten agreeing to a test and release regime. Shai Weiss, Virgin Atlantic chief executive, said: “As this latest analysis shows, UK Government is significantly underestimating the efficacy of passenger testing, therefore it’s essential that the Government’s Global Travel Taskforce acts swiftly to implement a testing regime to open up the skies safely, which industry has proven it can deliver without diverting vital NHS resources.” “If the introduction of testing is delayed, it will result in further distress across the travel, tourism and aviation industries, urgently driving the need for sector-specific support. Half a million UK jobs depend on a fully functioning aviation industry, therefore it’s vital that policy decisions are based on the latest possible evidence. Failure to collaborate will be devastating.”
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